Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Hertl 54.2% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.3%
Defensive zone
Norris 59.0%
Neutral zone
Norris 57.5%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Norris
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Norris
Hertl
Last 10: Norris 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
2
Norris
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Norris
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Norris
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,057)
53.8% (8,268)
-1.3%
Power Play
53.7% (404)
59.3% (1,975)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
46.3% (806)
-0.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,392).
Norris shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Norris
Hertl
Home
53.1% (1,856)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Norris
Hertl
P1
55.6%
53.6%
P2
51.4%
54.1%
P3
50.1%
55.3%
OT
40.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
53.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 14:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:38 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 14:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Josh Norris |