Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Hayes 50.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 69.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 50.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Nelson
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
Hayes
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
50.4% (850)
-2.4%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
56.4% (39)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
50.2% (223)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Nelson is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Nelson shoots left. Hayes is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hayes
Home
51.1% (399)
50.0% (586)
Away
45.6% (406)
51.1% (526)
By Period
Nelson
Hayes
P1
51.8%
52.3%
P2
47.5%
52.3%
P3
46.5%
47.3%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2018 | 2 | 11:12 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 1 | 10:15 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 2 | 02:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |