Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 50.2% vs Barzal 42.9% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 50.5%
Defensive zone
Hayes 51.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 50.5%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Hayes
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Hayes
Barzal
Last 8: Hayes 4-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
3
Hayes
Barzal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
1
Hayes
Barzal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (672)
40.7% (514)
+10.6%
Power Play
50.0% (78)
58.3% (24)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (76)
50.0% (10)
-9.2%
On even strength, Hayes has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Hayes is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Hayes shoots left. Barzal is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (392).
Home / Away
Hayes
Barzal
Home
52.0% (404)
43.0% (279)
Away
48.6% (422)
40.1% (269)
By Period
Hayes
Barzal
P1
50.7%
41.2%
P2
50.2%
46.4%
P3
49.8%
37.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.9%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.2%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2020 | 3 | 18:28 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 14:26 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 2 | 16:12 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 1 | 16:38 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 27, 2019 | 1 | 01:07 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |