Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs Barzal 46.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 57.5%
Defensive zone
Hayes 51.3%
Neutral zone
Hayes 51.0%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Hayes
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Hayes
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Hayes
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
46.6% (483)
-3.9%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
40.9% (22)
+2.0%
On even strength, Barzal has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Hayes is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Hayes shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Hayes
Barzal
Home
43.5% (232)
49.6% (242)
Away
42.4% (375)
43.3% (263)
By Period
Hayes
Barzal
P1
40.1%
42.4%
P2
44.8%
49.5%
P3
42.4%
47.7%
OT
80.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
42.8%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 09:37 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |