Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Barzal 42.2% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 17-14 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 67.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 54.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 57.6%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Hayes
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
17
(31 meetings)
14
17
Hayes
Barzal
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
4
Hayes
Barzal
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
6
7
Hayes
Barzal
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Hayes
Barzal
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
41.9% (3,565)
+5.6%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
43.4% (205)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
42.3% (26)
+3.0%
On power play, Hayes has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Home / Away
Hayes
Barzal
Home
48.1% (3,982)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Hayes
Barzal
P1
47.5%
40.7%
P2
47.6%
44.4%
P3
47.9%
41.0%
OT
54.1%
27.6%
Final 5 min
49.3%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 09:37 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 2 | 06:26 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 15:52 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 05:07 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 02:38 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 10:38 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 07:55 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 05:10 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 3 | 18:28 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |