Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 50.5% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 95.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 91.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 83.2%
16.8%
83.2%
Hayes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Hayes
O'Reilly
Last 10: Hayes 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
1
Hayes
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
1
Hayes
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (850)
60.3% (1,517)
-9.9%
Power Play
56.4% (39)
61.5% (387)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (223)
55.0% (220)
-4.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayes is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Hayes shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,411).
Home / Away
Hayes
O'Reilly
Home
50.0% (586)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
51.1% (526)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Hayes
O'Reilly
P1
52.3%
56.8%
P2
52.3%
64.6%
P3
47.3%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 3 | 19:42 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 3 | 08:15 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 1 | 19:37 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 1 | 16:58 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 1, 2018 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |