Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 76.2%
Neutral zone
Hayes 52.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Hayes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Hayes
O'Reilly
Last 8: Hayes 6-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
2
Hayes
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
55.0% (1,084)
+1.6%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
56.8% (303)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
40.3% (149)
+25.4%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Hayes
O'Reilly
Home
58.0% (405)
54.8% (759)
Away
56.1% (433)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Hayes
O'Reilly
P1
54.7%
55.3%
P2
55.7%
51.9%
P3
60.2%
54.2%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
58.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 01:52 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 17:25 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |