Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 51.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 64.0%
Neutral zone
Hayes 58.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Hayes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Hayes
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hayes
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
56.2% (983)
-4.6%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
55.5% (254)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
52.0% (102)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Hayes shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Hayes
O'Reilly
Home
50.5% (200)
56.2% (697)
Away
53.4% (253)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Hayes
O'Reilly
P1
58.8%
54.5%
P2
49.3%
55.5%
P3
48.0%
57.1%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
52.1%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |