Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 49.5% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 81.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 52.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 74.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Hayes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Hayes
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hayes
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hayes
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (557)
56.1% (690)
-7.6%
Power Play
53.3% (107)
64.6% (96)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
45.9% (109)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Hayes shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Hayes
O'Reilly
Home
50.8% (313)
58.3% (408)
Away
48.2% (363)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Hayes
O'Reilly
P1
52.3%
57.7%
P2
47.7%
54.8%
P3
48.4%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
50.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |