Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 66.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 64.6%
Neutral zone
Hayes 67.7%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Hayes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hayes
O'Reilly
Last 6: Hayes 2-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Hayes
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Hayes
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
56.6% (1,064)
-13.9%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
60.4% (260)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (31)
54.0% (261)
-8.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayes is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (388).
Hayes shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Hayes
O'Reilly
Home
43.5% (232)
54.9% (801)
Away
42.4% (375)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Hayes
O'Reilly
P1
40.1%
58.0%
P2
44.8%
56.7%
P3
42.4%
55.4%
OT
80.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
44.3%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 14:51 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |