Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +19.6% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-19.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 86.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 90.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 81.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 85.7%
14.3%
85.7%
Hayes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hayes
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
55.4% (826)
-23.5%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
57.9% (221)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
50.4% (129)
-50.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +50.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayes is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Hayes shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Hayes
O'Reilly
Home
30.6% (49)
55.8% (579)
Away
40.4% (57)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Hayes
O'Reilly
P1
22.9%
57.7%
P2
40.0%
54.8%
P3
44.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
30.4%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:41 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |