Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 33-23 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 87.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 84.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 87.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 86.6%
13.4%
86.6%
Hayes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
23
(56 meetings)
33
23
Hayes
O'Reilly
Last 10: Hayes 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
12
12
Hayes
O'Reilly
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
15
5
Hayes
O'Reilly
20 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Hayes
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
56.2% (15,260)
-8.7%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
58.8% (3,445)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
51.4% (2,811)
-6.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Hayes shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Hayes
O'Reilly
Home
48.1% (3,982)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Hayes
O'Reilly
P1
47.5%
55.6%
P2
47.6%
57.0%
P3
47.9%
55.1%
OT
54.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:41 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 01:52 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 17:25 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 14:51 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 15, 2020 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |