Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 33.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 38.0% vs Carrick 46.1% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 82.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 77.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 79.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Hayes
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hayes
Carrick
Last 5: Hayes 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Hayes
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Hayes
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
37.1% (642)
41.6% (89)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (11)
50.0% (2)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Hayes is 33.2% vs right-shot opponents (262).
Hayes shoots left. Carrick is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Home / Away
Hayes
Carrick
Home
36.7% (354)
39.6% (53)
Away
35.8% (327)
44.7% (38)
By Period
Hayes
Carrick
P1
33.6%
41.7%
P2
38.3%
38.7%
P3
37.0%
45.8%
Final 5 min
39.0%
38.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
36.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2014 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 2 | 02:55 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |