Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Carrick 53.0% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 61.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 74.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 53.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Hayes
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hayes
Carrick
Last 5: Hayes 2-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Hayes
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Hayes
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
53.9% (521)
+2.7%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
57.1% (35)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
51.5% (229)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Hayes
Carrick
Home
58.0% (405)
52.7% (408)
Away
56.1% (433)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Hayes
Carrick
P1
54.7%
51.4%
P2
55.7%
56.6%
P3
60.2%
52.1%
Final 5 min
58.9%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 07:52 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |