Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Carrick 53.7% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 77.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 72.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 53.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Hayes
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Hayes
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
53.8% (654)
-2.2%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
0.0% (2)
+53.2%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
63.9% (36)
-3.9%
On power play, Hayes has a +53.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Hayes shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Hayes
Carrick
Home
50.5% (200)
50.0% (328)
Away
53.4% (253)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Hayes
Carrick
P1
58.8%
56.7%
P2
49.3%
51.1%
P3
48.0%
54.8%
Final 5 min
56.9%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 19:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |