Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Carrick 52.1% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 82.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 52.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 68.1%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Hayes
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Hayes
Carrick
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
1
Hayes
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
4
Hayes
Carrick
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
5
Hayes
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
52.1% (2,513)
-4.6%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
61.3% (75)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
50.7% (430)
-5.4%
On power play, Carrick has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Hayes
Carrick
Home
48.1% (3,982)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Hayes
Carrick
P1
47.5%
51.8%
P2
47.6%
52.2%
P3
47.9%
52.4%
Final 5 min
49.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 19:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 07:52 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 08:16 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 29, 2019 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 2 | 02:55 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |