Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Thomas 51.7% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 52.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 68.0%
Neutral zone
Eller 53.4%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Eller
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Eller
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Eller
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
50.1% (615)
+6.4%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
62.2% (98)
+15.6%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
52.6% (114)
+3.9%
On power play, Eller has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Eller is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Eller shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Eller
Thomas
Home
53.1% (211)
51.9% (374)
Away
59.7% (278)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Eller
Thomas
P1
55.4%
49.2%
P2
58.1%
55.3%
P3
57.1%
50.6%
Final 5 min
60.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:41 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |