Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 55.8%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Draisaitl wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 54.6% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 62.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 68.2%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 52.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
11
(20 meetings)
9
11
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
Last 10: Draisaitl 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
6
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
2
1
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (974)
56.1% (690)
-3.7%
Power Play
59.5% (373)
64.6% (96)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
61.0% (123)
45.9% (109)
+15.1%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Draisaitl is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Draisaitl shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
Home
54.5% (778)
58.3% (408)
Away
55.3% (692)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
P1
54.6%
57.7%
P2
56.1%
54.8%
P3
53.3%
55.2%
OT
66.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
52.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 18:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 08:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | OT | 01:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 01:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 06:27 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:31 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |