Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Draisaitl wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 56.4% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Draisaitl leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 76.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 62.5%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 58.1%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
Last 10: Draisaitl 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
7
1
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
0
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (835)
55.4% (826)
+0.5%
Power Play
61.8% (228)
57.9% (221)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (40)
50.4% (129)
-0.4%
On power play, Draisaitl has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Draisaitl is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (708).
Draisaitl shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
Home
55.1% (508)
55.8% (579)
Away
58.5% (595)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Draisaitl
O'Reilly
P1
55.8%
57.7%
P2
55.7%
54.8%
P3
59.0%
54.3%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:02 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:51 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |