Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rossi wins 39.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 45.3% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 54.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 57.8%
Neutral zone
Rossi 58.4%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Rossi
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Rossi
MacKinnon
Last 7: Rossi 2-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Rossi
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Rossi
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (701)
45.5% (1,190)
-1.0%
Power Play
56.1% (41)
56.4% (94)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
40.0% (30)
-40.0%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Rossi is 39.1% vs right-shot opponents (281).
Rossi shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Rossi
MacKinnon
Home
46.8% (385)
47.8% (670)
Away
42.6% (364)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Rossi
MacKinnon
P1
42.8%
45.3%
P2
43.9%
48.5%
P3
47.4%
45.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
37.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
44.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 06:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:40 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |