Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Rossi wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 47.1% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 50.9%
Defensive zone
Rossi 52.1%
Neutral zone
Rossi 52.3%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Rossi
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
11
(21 meetings)
10
11
Rossi
MacKinnon
Last 10: Rossi 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Rossi
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
4
2
Rossi
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
5
Rossi
MacKinnon
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (879)
49.2% (1,266)
-2.7%
Power Play
48.6% (105)
54.9% (193)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
49.1% (55)
+0.9%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Rossi is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Rossi shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Rossi
MacKinnon
Home
47.5% (520)
50.9% (740)
Away
46.0% (472)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Rossi
MacKinnon
P1
47.8%
50.9%
P2
44.2%
51.8%
P3
48.7%
47.1%
OT
45.5%
58.8%
Final 5 min
47.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
46.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | OT | 01:49 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:20 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:35 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:21 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:49 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:23 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |