Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Sturm 59.0% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 68.0%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 53.3%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 62.9%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Kastelic
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Kastelic
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Kastelic
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
60.6% (708)
-7.2%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
61.1% (18)
+38.9%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
56.4% (101)
+18.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +38.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kastelic shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Sturm
Home
56.2% (162)
61.6% (451)
Away
52.9% (187)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Kastelic
Sturm
P1
58.2%
55.9%
P2
58.8%
58.9%
P3
45.4%
64.6%
Final 5 min
59.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |