Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 56.3%). Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Sturm 56.1% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 53.3%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 56.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 50.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Kastelic
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Kastelic
Sturm
Last 7: Kastelic 3-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Kastelic
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
57.1% (2,719)
-0.1%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
61.3% (62)
+18.7%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
51.0% (498)
+2.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Kastelic shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Sturm
Home
58.9% (895)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Kastelic
Sturm
P1
58.5%
56.5%
P2
56.9%
54.9%
P3
55.3%
57.4%
OT
53.8%
60.6%
Final 5 min
59.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:57 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:50 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |