Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.4% vs Sturm 57.1% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 69.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 53.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.3%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Kastelic
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kastelic
Sturm
Last 5: Kastelic 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Kastelic
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (345)
62.1% (356)
-6.7%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
75.0% (4)
-25.0%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
38.7% (62)
-3.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kastelic is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Kastelic shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Sturm
Home
50.6% (162)
61.8% (191)
Away
57.4% (204)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Kastelic
Sturm
P1
61.5%
58.0%
P2
52.8%
57.9%
P3
50.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
46.5%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:57 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:50 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |