Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Zacha 49.1% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 72.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 85.5%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 53.4%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Kastelic
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Kastelic
Zacha
Last 10: Kastelic 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Kastelic
Zacha
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
2
Kastelic
Zacha
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Kastelic
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
48.9% (5,102)
+8.1%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
55.6% (804)
+24.4%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
42.2% (555)
+11.4%
On power play, Kastelic has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Kastelic shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Zacha
Home
58.9% (895)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Kastelic
Zacha
P1
58.5%
49.9%
P2
56.9%
49.2%
P3
55.3%
48.1%
OT
53.8%
53.1%
Final 5 min
59.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:47 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |