Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.8%). Kastelic wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Zacha 54.4% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 71.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 60.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 55.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Kastelic
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Kastelic
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Kastelic
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
53.9% (787)
-0.5%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
63.2% (193)
+36.8%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
44.3% (88)
+30.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +36.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kastelic shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Zacha
Home
56.2% (162)
56.7% (538)
Away
52.9% (187)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Kastelic
Zacha
P1
58.2%
52.6%
P2
58.8%
54.8%
P3
45.4%
56.8%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
62.0%▬
62.0%
54.4%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |