Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Kastelic wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.4% vs Zacha 49.1% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 73.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 85.1%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 53.1%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Kastelic
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Kastelic
Zacha
Last 10: Kastelic 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Kastelic
Zacha
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
2
Kastelic
Zacha
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Kastelic
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (1,554)
48.8% (4,953)
+8.0%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
55.8% (788)
+24.2%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (248)
42.0% (547)
+11.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Kastelic is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,344).
Kastelic shoots right. Zacha is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,472).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Zacha
Home
59.0% (870)
49.6% (3,278)
Away
54.6% (957)
48.5% (3,010)
By Period
Kastelic
Zacha
P1
58.7%
49.9%
P2
57.0%
49.1%
P3
54.6%
47.9%
OT
50.0%
54.9%
Final 5 min
58.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
62.0%▬
62.0%
56.7%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:47 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |