Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 54.5% vs Zacha 50.1% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 56.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 88.0%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 69.5%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Kastelic
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kastelic
Zacha
Last 8: Kastelic 5-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kastelic
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
0
Kastelic
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Kastelic
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (115)
48.0% (296)
+8.5%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
61.0% (59)
+39.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
50.0% (22)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Kastelic has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Kastelic is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (79).
Kastelic shoots right. Zacha is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Zacha
Home
54.8% (73)
48.9% (223)
Away
63.8% (47)
51.9% (154)
By Period
Kastelic
Zacha
P1
50.0%
47.9%
P2
62.5%
48.3%
P3
60.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
58.3%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:47 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |