Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 54.5% vs Lorentz 47.6% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 57.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 85.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 72.0%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Kastelic
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Kastelic
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (115)
46.5% (101)
+10.0%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
33.3% (3)
+66.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
37.5% (8)
+62.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Kastelic is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (79).
Kastelic shoots right. Lorentz is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (50).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Lorentz
Home
54.8% (73)
49.1% (53)
Away
63.8% (47)
42.4% (59)
By Period
Kastelic
Lorentz
P1
50.0%
48.6%
P2
62.5%
36.7%
P3
60.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
58.3%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |