Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Lorentz 49.4% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 57.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 70.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 61.7%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Kastelic
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Kastelic
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
48.9% (135)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
50.0% (4)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Kastelic has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kastelic shoots right. Lorentz is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (42).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Lorentz
Home
56.2% (162)
50.7% (75)
Away
52.9% (187)
46.9% (64)
By Period
Kastelic
Lorentz
P1
58.2%
60.0%
P2
58.8%
46.3%
P3
45.4%
44.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 17:56 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |