Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 57.0%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 91.9%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 76.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
Kastelic
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kastelic
Lorentz
Last 7: Kastelic 5-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Lorentz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Lorentz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kastelic
Lorentz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
48.3% (497)
+9.7%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
63.6% (11)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
38.5% (39)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Kastelic has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Kastelic shoots right. Lorentz is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Lorentz
Home
64.9% (265)
50.4% (238)
Away
50.5% (325)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Kastelic
Lorentz
P1
58.5%
49.1%
P2
55.6%
48.0%
P3
56.8%
47.2%
Final 5 min
62.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 19:01 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 01:48 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 02:08 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |