Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Seguin 54.2% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 87.2%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 66.7%
Neutral zone
Seguin 68.5%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Kastelic
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Kastelic
Seguin
Last 9: Kastelic 2-7 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
6
Kastelic
Seguin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Seguin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Kastelic
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
55.0% (713)
+3.0%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
56.7% (104)
+18.3%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
47.2% (53)
+3.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Kastelic is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Kastelic shoots right. Seguin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Seguin
Home
64.9% (265)
56.2% (443)
Away
50.5% (325)
53.2% (427)
By Period
Kastelic
Seguin
P1
58.5%
54.2%
P2
55.6%
52.9%
P3
56.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
62.6%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 16:29 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 11:47 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:48 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |