Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Seguin 53.6% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Seguin 87.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 57.4%
Neutral zone
Seguin 66.0%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 74.7%
25.3%
74.7%
Kastelic
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Kastelic
Seguin
Last 10: Kastelic 3-7 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
8
Kastelic
Seguin
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
0
Kastelic
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Kastelic
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
53.7% (8,071)
+3.3%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
55.9% (810)
+24.1%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
49.3% (762)
+4.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Kastelic is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Kastelic shoots right. Seguin is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Seguin
Home
58.9% (895)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Kastelic
Seguin
P1
58.5%
52.8%
P2
56.9%
53.3%
P3
55.3%
54.7%
OT
53.8%
54.7%
Final 5 min
59.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 02:10 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 16:29 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 11:47 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:48 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |