Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 49.5% vs Duchene 52.1% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 56.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 73.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 55.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Scheifele
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Scheifele
Duchene
Last 7: Scheifele 5-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
5
2
Scheifele
Duchene
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Scheifele
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
2
Scheifele
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (981)
53.0% (723)
-4.3%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
49.5% (101)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (37)
43.8% (16)
-0.6%
On even strength, Duchene has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Scheifele is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (925).
Scheifele shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Duchene
Home
50.0% (672)
54.9% (408)
Away
48.8% (596)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Scheifele
Duchene
P1
51.4%
52.5%
P2
45.1%
51.7%
P3
51.9%
53.6%
OT
58.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 07:26 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |