Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Duchene 51.6% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 55.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 66.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Scheifele
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Scheifele
Duchene
Last 10: Scheifele 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Scheifele
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
4
2
Scheifele
Duchene
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (878)
51.2% (324)
-4.7%
Power Play
48.3% (174)
60.4% (53)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
16.7% (6)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Scheifele is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Scheifele shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Duchene
Home
46.2% (571)
51.6% (182)
Away
47.7% (535)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Scheifele
Duchene
P1
51.9%
49.6%
P2
45.6%
56.2%
P3
43.9%
48.6%
OT
27.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.7%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:33 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:46 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |