Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 56 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Duchene 54.1% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 82-64 in 146 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 63.8%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 78.0%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 76.8%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
Scheifele
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
64
-
82
(146 meetings)
64
82
Scheifele
Duchene
Last 10: Scheifele 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
23
21
Scheifele
Duchene
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
18
38
Scheifele
Duchene
56 total
Neutral Zone
Even
23
23
Scheifele
Duchene
46 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,036)
53.9% (10,396)
-7.6%
Power Play
50.2% (2,563)
56.9% (1,665)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
49.1% (468)
-7.5%
On even strength, Duchene has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,821).
Scheifele shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Duchene
Home
48.9% (7,644)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
44.7% (7,554)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Scheifele
Duchene
P1
48.2%
54.5%
P2
45.6%
54.5%
P3
46.8%
53.4%
OT
42.5%
56.3%
Final 5 min
45.6%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:33 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:46 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 07:26 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 15:48 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |