Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +20.2% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 39.3% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-20.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 79.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.4%
Neutral zone
Barzal 63.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Barzal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Barzal
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Barzal
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Barzal
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
35.0% (283)
56.1% (690)
-21.1%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
64.6% (96)
-9.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Barzal shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Barzal
O'Reilly
Home
37.0% (138)
58.3% (408)
Away
34.4% (154)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Barzal
O'Reilly
P1
29.5%
57.7%
P2
44.5%
54.8%
P3
31.8%
55.2%
OT
0.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
39.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
35.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 19:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 03:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |