Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Barzal wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-15.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 83.9%
Defensive zone
Barzal 88.3%
Neutral zone
Barzal 88.7%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 86.2%
86.2%
13.8%
Barzal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Barzal
O'Reilly
Last 10: Barzal 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Barzal
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Barzal
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Barzal
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
55.4% (826)
-15.0%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
57.9% (221)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
50.4% (129)
-21.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Barzal shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Barzal
O'Reilly
Home
38.1% (244)
55.8% (579)
Away
41.3% (264)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Barzal
O'Reilly
P1
46.6%
57.7%
P2
35.7%
54.8%
P3
37.7%
54.3%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:14 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 05:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 07:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |