Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 20-9 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 89.4%
Defensive zone
Barzal 95.0%
Neutral zone
Barzal 95.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 93.5%
93.5%
6.5%
Barzal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
20
(29 meetings)
9
20
Barzal
O'Reilly
Last 10: Barzal 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Barzal
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Barzal
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
11
Barzal
O'Reilly
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
56.2% (15,260)
-14.3%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
58.8% (3,445)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
51.4% (2,811)
-9.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Barzal shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Barzal
O'Reilly
Home
43.1% (1,895)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Barzal
O'Reilly
P1
40.7%
55.6%
P2
44.4%
57.0%
P3
41.0%
55.1%
OT
27.6%
62.2%
Final 5 min
39.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:14 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 05:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 07:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 19:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 03:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 18:41 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 1 | 09:52 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 1 | 06:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |