Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.9% vs Aho 52.2% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 50.5%
Defensive zone
Barzal 65.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 57.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Barzal
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Barzal
Aho
Last 10: Barzal 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Barzal
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
4
3
Barzal
Aho
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
2
Barzal
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (483)
51.6% (819)
-5.0%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
58.4% (173)
-17.5%
On power play, Aho has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Barzal shoots right. Aho is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Barzal
Aho
Home
49.6% (242)
53.9% (568)
Away
43.3% (263)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Barzal
Aho
P1
42.4%
55.4%
P2
49.5%
51.2%
P3
47.7%
50.9%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
40.2%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
46.3%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 01:23 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 03:25 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 11:37 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 10:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 07:50 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 06:49 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 00:06 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |