Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.3% vs Aho 53.8% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 55.8%
Defensive zone
Barzal 56.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 56.0%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Barzal
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Barzal
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Barzal
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Barzal
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (114)
51.2% (785)
-8.2%
On even strength, Aho has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Barzal is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Barzal shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Barzal
Aho
Home
35.8% (53)
54.9% (548)
Away
49.2% (61)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Barzal
Aho
P1
44.2%
52.8%
P2
38.5%
58.9%
P3
46.9%
50.6%
Final 5 min
38.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
43.0%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |