Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +15.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Barzal wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 39.3% vs Aho 51.2% (-15.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 75.2%
Defensive zone
Barzal 68.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 72.7%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Barzal
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Barzal
Aho
Last 7: Barzal 2-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
5
Barzal
Aho
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
35.0% (283)
48.5% (778)
-13.5%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
63.4% (191)
-7.8%
On even strength, Aho has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Barzal shoots right. Aho is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Barzal
Aho
Home
37.0% (138)
51.3% (530)
Away
34.4% (154)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Barzal
Aho
P1
29.5%
50.0%
P2
44.5%
51.3%
P3
31.8%
52.1%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
35.6%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 11:52 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 15:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 08:57 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 1 | 16:29 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |