Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 14 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Aho 51.2% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 25-21 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 71.9%
Defensive zone
Barzal 66.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 68.1%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Barzal
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
25
(46 meetings)
21
25
Barzal
Aho
Last 10: Barzal 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Barzal
Aho
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
6
8
Barzal
Aho
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
11
13
Barzal
Aho
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
50.1% (6,619)
-8.2%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
58.9% (1,310)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
46.3% (464)
-4.0%
On power play, Aho has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Barzal shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Barzal
Aho
Home
43.1% (1,895)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Barzal
Aho
P1
40.7%
51.1%
P2
44.4%
52.0%
P3
41.0%
50.7%
OT
27.6%
48.9%
Final 5 min
39.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:27 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 11:52 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 15:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 08:57 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 1 | 16:29 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 01:23 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 03:25 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 11:37 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |