Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 47.4% vs Aho 54.9% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 55.0%
Defensive zone
Aho 50.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 52.8%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Barzal
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Barzal
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Barzal
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (52)
54.5% (870)
-12.2%
On even strength, Aho has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Barzal is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (44).
Barzal shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Barzal
Aho
Home
28.0% (25)
53.9% (603)
Away
55.6% (27)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Barzal
Aho
P1
47.4%
54.1%
P2
45.8%
55.0%
P3
22.2%
57.4%
Final 5 min
37.5%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
42.3%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:27 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |