Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +19.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 43.9% vs Duchene 61.5% (-19.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 70.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 58.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 73.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
McDavid
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Duchene
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
McDavid
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (750)
62.2% (802)
-18.9%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
67.3% (153)
-27.3%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (31)
59.4% (143)
-17.5%
On power play, Duchene has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McDavid is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
McDavid shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
McDavid
Duchene
Home
48.7% (413)
66.5% (555)
Away
37.4% (393)
58.6% (543)
By Period
McDavid
Duchene
P1
38.8%
63.2%
P2
46.8%
59.6%
P3
44.2%
65.0%
OT
45.5%
71.4%
Final 5 min
54.5%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
43.2%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2017 | 2 | 14:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 2 | 09:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 10:31 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 23, 2017 | 2 | 03:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 2 | 06:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |