Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +21.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 44.0% vs Duchene 61.5% (-21.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 73.1%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 56.7%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 73.4%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Rodrigues
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Rodrigues
Duchene
Last 5: Rodrigues 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Rodrigues
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Rodrigues
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Rodrigues
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (235)
62.2% (802)
-21.3%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
67.3% (153)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
59.4% (143)
-9.4%
On even strength, Duchene has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Rodrigues shoots right. Duchene is 65.4% vs right-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Duchene
Home
45.9% (148)
66.5% (555)
Away
35.3% (102)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Rodrigues
Duchene
P1
35.1%
63.2%
P2
44.6%
59.6%
P3
44.4%
65.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
41.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2017 | 2 | 18:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2017 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2017 | 2 | 01:17 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2017 | 2 | 01:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2017 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |