Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs MacKinnon 42.6% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 60.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Duchene
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Duchene
MacKinnon
Last 9: Duchene 3-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Duchene
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Duchene
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,112)
40.7% (953)
+11.9%
Power Play
56.0% (193)
51.4% (148)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
36.4% (55)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Duchene is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Duchene shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (808).
Home / Away
Duchene
MacKinnon
Home
55.7% (652)
42.1% (617)
Away
50.4% (702)
41.7% (540)
By Period
Duchene
MacKinnon
P1
51.4%
43.4%
P2
53.9%
40.9%
P3
53.3%
40.8%
OT
55.6%
55.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
41.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2017 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2017 | 1 | 08:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 10, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 2 | 16:04 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 1 | 13:23 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |