Matt Duchene vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 22-18 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 60.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 67.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Duchene
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
18
(40 meetings)
22
18
Duchene
MacKinnon
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
7
Duchene
MacKinnon
17 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Duchene
MacKinnon
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
5
Duchene
MacKinnon
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
46.1% (11,218)
+7.8%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
53.3% (1,412)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
42.8% (502)
+6.3%
On even strength, Duchene has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Duchene
MacKinnon
Home
55.6% (6,411)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Duchene
MacKinnon
P1
54.5%
47.4%
P2
54.5%
46.6%
P3
53.4%
46.1%
OT
56.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | OT | 00:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 03:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | OT | 04:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |