Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 52.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 67.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 60.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Duchene
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Duchene
MacKinnon
Last 9: Duchene 6-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Duchene
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
49.2% (1,266)
+3.8%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
54.9% (193)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
49.1% (55)
-5.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Duchene shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Duchene
MacKinnon
Home
54.9% (408)
50.9% (740)
Away
50.0% (432)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Duchene
MacKinnon
P1
52.5%
50.9%
P2
51.7%
51.8%
P3
53.6%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
53.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |