Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 62.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 78.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Duchene
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Duchene
MacKinnon
Last 9: Duchene 6-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
45.5% (1,190)
+11.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
56.4% (94)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
40.0% (30)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Duchene
MacKinnon
Home
56.6% (318)
47.8% (670)
Away
56.4% (319)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Duchene
MacKinnon
P1
57.2%
45.3%
P2
55.1%
48.5%
P3
55.6%
45.0%
OT
81.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |